专家表示,中国经济的复苏预计将为全球通胀降温,而不是推高通胀。中国通胀率保持在温和水平,将为抑制全球飙升的通胀发挥关键作用,同时也将确保今年强劲的复苏劲头和稳定的物价。

A consumer picks vegetables at a supermarket in Shijiazhuang, Hebei province, on Feb 10. [PHOTO by JIA MINJIE/FOR CHINA DAILY]

 

The recovery of the Chinese economy is expected to cool global inflation instead of pushing it up, and China’s inflation growth and overall prices will remain tame and stable, according to economists and analysts.

经济学家和分析师表示,中国经济的复苏预计将为全球通胀降温,而不是推高通胀。中国的通胀增速和物价总体水平将保持稳定。

 

Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley’s chief China economist, said China’s reopening will help curb surging global inflation, as the normalization of economic activities will stabilize supply chains and make them function more effectively. He added that will avoid the supply shock related to global supply, one of the drivers of inflation.

摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强表示,中国的重新开放将有助于遏制全球通胀飙升,因为经济活动的正常化将稳定供应链,使其更有效地运作。他补充说,这将避免出现与全球供应相关的供应冲击,这是通货膨胀的驱动因素之一。

 

Over the past year, many economies around the globe witnessed the biggest surge in inflation in 40 years due to runaway energy and food prices amid geopolitical tensions and massive fiscal and monetary stimulus that many countries adopted.

过去一年,由于地缘政治紧张局势和许多国家采取大规模财政和货币刺激措施,能源和食品价格上升,全球许多经济体经历了40年来最大的通胀飙升。

 

Against that background, China, the world’s second-largest economy, has managed to deal with inflationary pressures with the government’s effective measures to stabilize prices and supplies of daily necessities and bulk commodities.

在此背景下,全球第二大经济体中国通过采取有效措施,稳定生活必需品和大宗商品的价格和供应,成功应对了通货膨胀压力。

 

The country’s consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, rose by 2 percent year-on-year in 2022, well below the country’s annual inflation target of around 3 percent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

据国家统计局数据显示,2022年,我国居民消费价格指数(通货膨胀的主要衡量指标)同比上涨2%,远低于我国3%左右的年度通胀目标。

 

Looking into the full year, Xing said he believes inflation will not be a major concern for China in 2023 and the country will keep overall prices stable within a reasonable range.

邢自强表示,展望全年,他认为通胀不会成为中国的主要问题,中国的物价总体水平将稳定在合理区间。

 

When it comes to concerns that the revival of the world’s second-largest economy may push up global commodity prices, Xing said China’s economic rebound will mainly be driven by consumption rather than forceful infrastructure spending.

在谈到中国的经济复苏可能推高全球大宗商品价格的担忧时,邢自强说,中国经济的反弹将主要由消费推动,而不是大量的基础设施建设支出。

 

“That means China’s reopening will not boost inflation via commodities, especially as the United States and Europe may suffer from weak demand this year,” he said.

他说:“这意味着中国的重新开放不会通过大宗商品价格推高通胀,尤其是在美国和欧洲今年可能遭遇需求疲软的情况下。”

 

Considering China’s abundant labor force and their strong willingness to dedicate their efforts to work, Xing said the recovery in consumption of services will not add too many inflationary pressures.

邢自强表示,考虑到中国充足的劳动力及其强烈的就业意愿,服务消费行业的复苏不会增加太多的通胀压力。

 

Despite a strong recovery of mobility and in-person service sectors in the second half of January, China continued to print low inflation data. In January, China’s CPI increased by 2.1 percent from a year earlier. Meanwhile, CPI in the US climbed 6.4 percent in January.

尽管今年1月下旬,中国人口流动性大增,服务业出现了强劲复苏,但通胀数据仍处于低位。今年1月,中国的居民消费价格指数同比增长2.1%,而同期美国居民消费价格指数同比上涨6.4%。

 

Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura, said the uptick in year-on-year CPI inflation was mainly driven by the timing of the Chinese New Year holiday, which took place in January this year and February last year.

野村证券首席中国经济学家陆挺表示,居民消费价格指数同比上涨主要是受到中国春节假期时间的影响,今年春节假期在1月,去年在2月。

 

Looking forward, he said his team expects China’s CPI inflation to edge down marginally to 2 percent in February, reflecting some pullback after the January Spring Festival holiday effects.

展望未来,陆挺表示,他的团队预计中国2月份的居民消费价格指数将小幅下降至2%,反映出1月份春节假期影响后的一些回落。

 

来源:中国日报

编辑:yaning